We were fortunate last weekend when Sergey Lipinets held on for a draw. That fight could easily have been judged in favor of Custio Clayton. And we just missed our long-shot bet on Claudio Marrero. But Subriel Matias bailed us out to give us our fifth straight profitable week. Our mutual fund investment had a much rougher week and now our portfolio stands as follows:
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 423.05%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): -14.90%
The first fight we’ll look at is a prospect matchup on Golden Boy’s Friday night card on DAZN, Rashidi Ellis vs Alexis Rocha. Ellis is a bit of a strange case. He’s been a pro since 2014 and has been a Golden Boy prospect since at least 2016 but has never really had the big step up fight to prove his level. He relies on his good hand speed and will try to stay busy with the jab and keep the fight at distance. If this was any other promoter than Golden Boy we would suspect they were feeding the older prospect to the younger prospect with a brighter future. But Golden Boy has frequently matched their prospects aggressively within their own stable. Rocha is coming off his best win, a close decision over Brad Solomon. He’ll press the action and try to keep the fight on the inside and wear Ellis down. The line on this fight is fairly close, but we don’t think Ellis will have much trouble controlling the action. If he comes through this fight we wouldn’t be surprised to see him matched with Vergil Ortiz Jr soon, but we doubt Rocha would be ready for that fight if he is victorious here.
$60 on Rashidi Ellis at -147
The next fight we’ll look at is Tommy McCarthy vs Bilal Laggoune on DAZN’s Saturday afternoon card. We missed the boat on this one a bit as the line opened much closer earlier in the week. We have seen nothing of Laggoune, a Belgian fighter who has only fought outside his home country once. He has taken modest steps up a couple of times in his career but came away with a draw and a loss in those fights. McCarthy is coming off the biggest win of his career, a decision victory over Fabio Turchi in Italy. Getting a decision in Italy as a foreign fighter is quite a feat and McCarthy fought a disciplined fight using his jab and controlled lateral movement to keep Turchi from being able to plant his feet. He has been down in both of his losses and outside of Turchi, he hasn’t beaten any fighters of note. But we think the judges will favor him if the bout is a technical match like we expect it to be.
$48 on Tommy McCarthy at -257
Next, we’ll look at another fight on Saturday’s DAZN card, Lee Selby vs George Kambosos. This is a bit of a crossroads fight even though both guys have been pros for at least seven years. Selby’s best days are likely behind him at this point. He’s now fighting at least one weight class above his most effective weight. He relies on movement and an aging stylist can be derailed by conditioning issues. That’s the essence of this fight for Selby. Will he have enough in the tank to keep moving for 12 rounds? If not, we don’t like his chances when he is forced to stand and exchange. Kambosos is coming off a victory over the veteran Mickey Bey that followed the same blueprint. Bey gave Kambosos problems with movement but at 37 years of age, he wasn’t able to avoid standing and trading at times. Kambosos caught him with an uppercut and dropped him. We could easily see that happening on Saturday in a well-matched fight. Does Selby frustrate Kambosos or does Kambosos walk him down and punish him? We’re going with Selby, but we’re only risking a two unit bet.
$24 on Lee Selby at +111
On Saturday night’s Showtime PPV undercard we have Michel Rivera vs Ladarius Miller. Rivera is the young prospect with some decent wins under his belt already at 22 years old. Miller will be his stiffest test yet but we think Rivera is ready. He was in against an experienced southpaw last time out and looked good in stopping Fidel Maldonado. Ordinarily, Rivera will keep the jab busy but it might be a bit quiet against the southpaw here. He’s not really a pressure fighter but he has some pop and he’ll definitely be the aggressor in this matchup. Miller was lackluster in his last fight against Jezzrel Corrales. We thought he lost by a point but the fight could have gone either way. As it was Miller got the decision win when Corrales had a point deducted in the final round for holding. Without the deduction, it would have been a draw. Rivera will be a more conventional target than Corrales. The fight should settle into a pattern of Rivera coming forward looking for spots to land the straight right while Miller gives ground and tries to land counter right hooks. Miller doesn’t have the power to keep Rivera off him but his feet might be good enough to steal some rounds. Still, we look for Rivera to close the distance often enough that he’ll get the benefit of the doubt with the judges as the aggressor.
$60 on Michel Rivera at -299
We’re betting another fight on the Showtime PPV undercard, Isaac Cruz vs Diego Magdaleno. We think this is probably the closest matchup of the weekend and has a good chance to provide the most action. Cruz will need to get inside to work with hooks and uppercuts. He won’t stop coming forward and likes to mix it up but he can be a bit wide with his shots. Magdaleno is somewhat similar but he’ll have a length advantage here. He’s probably better coming forward but he might have success at range here with straighter shots. The fact that Teofimo Lopez stopped him doesn’t make us question his chin, but Terry Flanagan uncharacteristically gave him a savage beating which does raise our eyebrows. Cruz could jump on him here and get him out of there. This fight is basically a toss-up to us, but we’re going with Magdaleno to weather some early trouble and settle into a rhythm and win a close, spirited scrap.
$24 on Diego Magdaleno at +117
We’re also going to place a bet on a fight that won’t take place until December 6, Ryan Garcia vs Luke Campbell. The line for this fight is already starting to move and we know who we like, so we want to get at least a partial bet in now in case the line moves against us. This fight will either be Garcia’s coming out party or the fight that confirms to his many detractors that his Instagram fame far overshadows his fighting ability. Campbell is an experienced fighter who has been in with some of the best fighters in the division over the years, namely Lomachenko. But the division was down for years and we think Garcia will be the second-best fighter he’s ever been in with. These guys are about the same size but we think Garcia’s significant advantages in speed and power will outweigh Campbell’s advantage of experience and guile. Garcia gets this fight on American soil which should also give him an edge with the judges. Garcia’s our pick to win this fight and we think he’ll look good doing it.
$60 on Ryan Garcia at -206