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Investing With Boxing Picks, Week 41: Betting The Little Guys

In a crowded weekend with shows on every major platform, it's the flyweights who have our attention.

Both fights we bet last week were entertaining nail biters.  We thought Adam Lopez edged Isaac Dogboe and felt like Aaron Alameda might have gotten the nod against Angelo Leo.  But the judges disagreed with us.  We’d have fared worse had they seen it our way.  Instead, we salvaged a sliver of profit on the weekend which leaves our portfolio like this:


Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20):  69.80%

Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20):    34.23%

Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI):   21.21%


The first fight we’ll look at this week is the main event on MTK Global’s Friday show, Jay Harris vs Ricardo Sandoval.  This is an important fight for both guys as it presumably leads to a shot at Sunny Edwards for the winner.  Harris has been on the big stage before when he soaked up some of Julio Cesar Martinez’s best shots and had some moments in a competitive loss.  He’ll fight mostly at distance looking for the right hand off his jab.  He’s not a huge puncher but he’s got enough pop to have an effect.  He’s got a good chin and will come forward and make the fight if he feels like it’s his best shot to win.  Sandoval is the younger man taking a big step up in this fight.  Both guys fight in a similar style and are tall for the weight so it will be interesting to see which man thinks he has the advantage at distance.  Sandoval will likely mix it up if he feels like he needs to and this could easily turn into a firefight.  We’re less sure about Sandoval’s ability to take punishment as he hasn’t been tagged by someone with big power.  This one opened with Harris the solid favorite but the odds now reflect about a 55-45 fight.  We expect it to be closely contested and to go the distance, so we like the home fighter’s chances with the judges.  We’re going with Harris.


$45 on Jay Harris at -155


We’re also betting an undercard fight on Saturday night’s Showtime PPV, Erickson Lubin vs Jeison Rosario.  This is an intriguing matchup of PBC fighters who have several common opponents.  Both guys have beaten Jorge Cota and lost to Jermell Charlo.  Rosario was stopped by Nathaniel Gallimore back in 2017, while Lubin easily outpointed him in 2019.  We’re not sure how much any of that really matters.  Rosario is certainly a better, more seasoned fighter than he was back then and Lubin has rebuilt himself after getting caught cold and dismantled by Charlo in the first round when he was a young fighter.  We’ve got to believe the fight plan for Lubin here will be to give some ground, control range with the jab and look to clip Rosario with the right hook as he wades in.  Lubin was caught with a right hand and buzzed his last time out against Terrell Gausha, which should be a reminder that he can be hurt.  And Rosario has real fight ending power with either hand.  If this thing turns into a shootout, we don’t like Lubin’s chances.  It will take a disciplined effort but Lubin has improved his ring generalship as he has matured and we think he’s up to the task.


$75 on Erickson Lubin at -283

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