Investing With Boxing Picks, Week 15: Getting In Early On A Much Anticipated Fight

The lines opened this week for a fight that promises great action. We liked how it was priced right out of the gate, so we jumped on it.

We can’t really complain about the way our last bet went.  We felt like Matvey Korobov would handle Ronald Ellis, but we had questions about his body holding up.  We thought the shoulder would be the issue, it turned out to be an Achilles rupture.  The fight was still in doubt but it looked to us like Korobov was starting to control things.  Tough break for him and it could spell the end of his career.   Here’s where we currently stand:


Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20):  160.04%

Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20):    53.86%

Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI):   27.01%


We’re placing an early bet on the February 21st ESPN main event, Miguel Berchelt vs Oscar Valdez.  This one has been talked about for some time, and it seemed like Valdez’s team may have wanted to take another fight or two before arriving here.  He’s been with Eddy Reynoso for his last four fights and they’ve talked about improving his defense after Scott Quigg broke his jaw back in 2018.  We haven’t really seen a big difference stylistically.  Valdez still wants to land the left hook and he’s still available to be hit.  Adam Lopez dropped him with a left hook before Valdez stopped him with a left hook of his own.  Most any fighter would be wise to avoid trading left hooks with Berchelt, but it’s easier said than done.  He has stopped 16 of his last 17 opponents and will walk straight to you and throw in combination.  Luis Florez did stop him with a left hook back in 2014 and Valdez is certainly capable of doing the same thing.  But we don’t think he’ll be able to withstand the punishment Berchelt will bring.  There is potential here for a classic fight.  We’re going with Berchelt, and at these odds we’re going big with a 7 unit bet.


$90 on Miguel Berchelt at -250


We’ve waited on the line to settle for Thursday’s big Japanese matchup, Kazuto Ioka vs Kosei Tanaka.  Ioka comes in at 25-2 with 18 of those fights coming in major title fights across four weight classes.  He will likely end up in the Hall of Fame and a victory here would extend a legacy that already puts him in the top 10 Japanese boxers of all time.  He’s a well rounded fighter with good feet, timing and defense but he’s not a stylist.  He’ll throw with you when it’s to his advantage.  This will be his fifth fight at 115, so he is comfortable at the weight. After announcing his retirement in 2017, he has seemed fully engaged in his four fights since coming back and doesn’t seem to have lost a thing.  Tanaka will be fighting at 115 for the first time after a successful five fight run at 112.  He’s offensive minded and will go to war with you if you allow it.  We thought he had some trouble with Gonzalez movement and southpaw style last time out, but he broke him down with a good body attack and stopped him.  He also went to war with Sho Kimura in a good, competitive battle.  He’s a very good fighter and enters this fight as the slight favorite.  We favor Ioka ever so slightly here and think his movement and class will nullify enough of Tanaka’s offense to get him a victory on the cards.  This could be a classic battle.


$26 on Kazuto Ioka at +142


We also considered betting the James Kirkland vs Juan Macias Montiel bout on Saturday.  But we haven’t seen either of Kirkland’s recent comeback fights and we don’t know a lot about Montiel.  We could get Kirkland at -198 here but we’d be betting on nostalgia.  And, honestly, it still might not be a great play.  Kirkland’s style is not one that ages well.  He always relied on conditioning and had a dodgy chin.  We have no idea what kind of shape he’s in here and Montiel seems to have a decent chin on paper.  We’re going to sit this one out, but we’ll be tuning in.







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