We had a solid betting weekend last time out which enhanced the experience of watching the sensational trilogy capstone between Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder. And we needed a profitable weekend after a run of losing weeks. Our portfolio now stands as follows:
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 32.00%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 29.40%
Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI): 10.98%
This week we’re betting the main event on PBC’s Showtime card on Saturday night, Jamal James vs Radzhab Butaev. James has logged several solid victories over fringe contending welterweights over the last five years. His only blemish is a loss to Yordenis Ugas, which doesn’t look terrible in light of what Ugas has accomplished lately. He’s got decent height and reach for a welterweight and will use the jab but he’s not a defense first fighter. He’s had success both on the back foot and coming forward. In this matchup we expect to see him mostly giving ground behind a busy jab and using enough lateral movement to prevent Butaev from setting his feet often. Butaev’s only loss (overturned by a PED violation) came in his only true step up in competition to Alexander Besputin. He had a highly decorated and extensive amateur career and has been fighting at a high level for more than a decade even though he’s only 27 years old. Butaev will do his best to make this an inside battle. He’ll try to cut James down with body shots but he’ll likely need him to cooperate and stay in front of him to be effective. He’s got the power advantage but we don’t expect James to make it easy to land on him. The odds have this as a toss up and we expect a very good fight. We’re going with James to nick the decision.
$27 on Jamal James at -109
We’re also betting the main event of Top Rank’s Saturday night card on ESPN+, Jose Zepeda vs Josue Vargas. This is an interesting matchup for Top Rank to put together and it reminds us of the Jose Pedraza–Julian Rodriguez fight in the same weight division from earlier this summer. Top Rank has a loaded stable at 140 and in 2021 they have been sorting it out by matching veterans against upcoming prospects in step up fights. Zepeda is the veteran here and he’s coming off a pedestrian victory over an aging Hank Lundy in a pretty dull fight. But we also now know he can be explosive after his sensational war with Ivan Baranchyk. Zepeda has pretty good feet, a good jab and he can punch a little which gives him options in every fight he’s in. He will never favor a trench war, but he’s now shown that he has the stuff to win one if he has to. Vargas probably has the quicker hands and also moves well but he’s not a guy who likes to work behind the jab. He likes to move in and out and keep his hands moving. He can also be effective as a counter puncher but he’ll be at a power disadvantage here. The wild card in this fight is that both fighters are southpaws. We felt Zepeda had a little bit of trouble when Pedraza switched southpaw for stretches of their fight. Neither guy has extensive experience against southpaws. But we think that will make the jab a little more important in this fight and we think it gives Zepeda a slight edge. This is another toss up fight. It opened with Zepeda as a solid favorite, but he’s now been bet to a slight underdog. We have him rated with the higher ceiling in our database and we do still believe that even though there is not a wide margin between these two. Still, we’re betting on the experienced fighter with a little more pedigree and we think three units makes sense.
$41 on Jose Zepeda at +104