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Investing With Boxing Picks, Week 9: How Do You Bet A Rematch?

We have two rematches on the schedule this weekend with bettable lines. Did we learn enough from the first fights to confidently bet the rematches?

We hit on our only bet last week when Junto Nakatani dominated Geimel Magramo in a masterful performance.   Nakatani answered any questions about whether or not he is a real player in a crowded flyweight division.  He is now right in the mix with Julio Cesar Martinez, Kosei Tanaka, Artem Dalakian, and Angel Acosta and would make for an entertaining fight against any of them.   While this bet only netted us $18.14, it extended our streak of profitable weeks to seven.  Our portfolio stands as follows:


Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20):  361.59%

Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20):    37.92%

Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI):   37.40%


Before next weekend’s Alexander PovetkinDillian Whyte fight was postponed due to Povetkin being hospitalized with Covid, there were three immediate rematches of fights that happened earlier in the year scheduled in the span of a week.  In one of the rematches, the winner of the first fight is a solid favorite in the rematch.  In another, the first fight was a draw and the rematch has a tight line.  The third, Povetkin-Whyte had the loser of the first fight, Whyte, coming into the rematch as the betting favorite.  Now that Povetkin has been released from the hospital and is on the road to recovery, we expect that fight to take place early next year and we’ll evaluate it later.  The other two fights happen this weekend and we’re betting both of them.


First, we’ll look at the main event of Friday’s Queensberry card, Denzel Bentley vs Mark Heffron.  This fight takes place just 62 days after the first fight which ended in a draw.  That night Heffron was the fighter coming forward but Bentley was able to score fighting on his back foot with better hand speed.  We have seen Bentley fight coming forward and applying pressure in the past but he has the quicker feet in this matchup.  Bentley had never been past the 6th round coming into that fight and the strategy to use movement may have burned off enough energy that Bentley was starting to wilt down the stretch.  Heffron was finally able to close the gap and land a flush left hook and a right hand in the 9th that had Bentley momentarily stunned.  The rematch is scheduled for 12 rounds, which could again pose a problem if Bentley uses the same strategy.  Heffron did seem bothered when Bentley switched southpaw and he even dropped Heffron in the 2nd round, though it was more of a balance shot and Heffron wasn’t hurt.  Heffron has slower hands and telegraphs his shots but carries better power.  His right hand is straighter than Bentley’s and his left hook is shorter which counter Bentley’s speed.  When they are up close we like Heffron’s chances to land something big.  But there is very little separating these two fighters and we think this is a true coin flip fight.  The market has Bentley at -153 and Heffron at +124.  The bet on Heffron has a positive expected value, but the odds are close enough that we are sticking with a modest one unit bet.  If we felt Heffron had a better than 50% chance of winning or we were being paid +160 we’d place a bigger bet.


$12 on Mark Heffron at +124


The other rematch we are betting is the co-main event on Saturday’s ESPN card, Joshua Franco vs Andrew Moloney.  The first fight took place in June with Moloney entering as a -247 favorite.  Franco had recently moved back down to 115 pounds after spending two years at 118.  We think 115 suits him better and while he doesn’t possess one-punch knockout power, he has enough pop to break you down and punish you.  And he was starting to put a bit of a beating on Moloney down the stretch of the first matchup.  The official judges scored the fight narrowly for Franco, but we had him winning 9 rounds.  We aren’t sure this rematch would be happening right away if it wasn’t Moloney’s only guaranteed title shot in the foreseeable future.  We can’t see Moloney completely changing the way he fights and gaining an edge here and we don’t think he has the pop to stand and trade and try to get Franco out of there.  Franco enters this fight as the favorite, as he should.  And we think he will get the decision this time even if he only wins 7 rounds handily.


$50 on Joshua Franco at -193

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