We hit on our bet on Felix Cash last week and pushed on our other bet for our first profitable week since February 13. Here’s how we’re looking now:
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 42.83%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 41.92%
Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI): 12.80%
This week we’re betting the main event of Queensberry’s show on Friday, Moruti Mthalane vs Sunny Edwards. This is a good stylistic matchup and should produce an interesting fight. Mthalane is a long fighter who favors two handed offense. He’s not reckless but he’ll come forward and look to land rather than using his length to control distance. He’s not a guy you can stand in front of unless you think you have enough power to stop him. That’s why Edwards poses an interesting test as he’s slick and moves a lot. He’s a good counter puncher but doesn’t have enough power to deter Mthalane, which means he’ll be relying on a fight plan that requires great conditioning. Mthalane is a bit of a marvel as he hasn’t lost a fight since Donaire beat him in 2008. He’s 38, fighting at flyweight where most contenders are younger than 30. At some point he will show his age and we think this is the kind of fight that will test his gas tank. Edwards gets the fight at home in a battle likely to go the distance but comes in with underdog odds. We think this bout is a tossup, so we’re going with Edwards and the better expected payout.
$25 on Sunny Edwards at +131
We’re also betting an undercard fight on PBC”s PPV show on Saturday night, Omar Figueroa vs Abel Ramos. At first glance this looks like a fight that hinges entirely on what Figueroa has left and is willing to give in the ring. He has talked openly about questioning his desire to continue fighting over the last two years. And the last time he was in the ring it looked as if he hadn’t had a real training camp in preparation. He’s been in camp this time with Joel Diaz, who seems like a good fit as Figueroa has always relied on a swarming style that depends on a high work rate. But we also have questions about Figueroa’s effectiveness at 147. He’s never beaten a true welterweight in their prime. He doesn’t carry enough power to hurt opponents at this weight and fights in a style that virtually ignores defense. Ramos is not an elite welterweight, but it’s his natural weight class and he’s a sturdy fighter who’s been in with Maurice Hooker, Regis Prograis, Ivan Baranchyk, Jamal James, Bryant Perrella and Yordenis Ugas. He’s a year younger than Figueroa but he’s fresher and showed against Perrella that he has not accepted a sparring partner mentality. We wouldn’t be surprised if Figueroa gets good work done early, but we think Ramos is a hungry fighter and will do damage as the fight goes late and ring rust becomes a factor. Figueroa opened as the favorite in this fight but had been bet to the underdog in just a few hours. We still think Ramos is the bet here even at these odds.
$50 on Abel Ramos at -169