Before we get to our picks this week we must acknowledge that we lost our biggest bet last time out when Oscar Valdez put on a masterful performance against Miguel Berchelt. Though it stung, we won our other two bets to limit the damage. We’ve got to expect to lose some big bets from time to time. If we can limit it to one every 40 bets or so, we should be in good shape. But we’re still pretty certain we’ve been a bit lucky to this point. Here’s how our portfolio stands:
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 94.42%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 42.28%
Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI): 22.56%
This week we’re betting on the much-anticipated headliner on Saturday’s DAZN card, Juan Francisco Estrada vs Roman Gonzalez. Gonzalez won the first matchup back in 2012 before he ascended to the top of the pound for pound rankings. It seems like “Chocolatito” is older than he is, though 33 is getting up there for fighters in the smaller weight classes. We thought his crushing, decisive stoppage loss to Srisaket Sor Rungvisai in their second fight might have ended his career. But he has strung together a few good wins after some time off and seems to have fully recovered his confidence. Gonzalez has always seemed a little undersized and soft at 115 but he has proven that he is still a lethal stalker who will press you from the opening bell. Estrada seems like his body handles the weight more naturally and he may have more tactical options available to him but we expect this fight to eventually ignite into a classic firefight for stretches. Estrada may be able to bank a few rounds early with movement, but it will be interesting to see if he’s content to go that route rather than to try to take something out of Gonzalez in the early going. We wouldn’t be surprised if age does finally run Gonzalez down but we were impressed with his methodical beatdown of Kal Yafai. Estrada isn’t exactly a young man either. We think this is close to a 50/50 fight, so we’re going with Gonzalez and the better payout. But we also think he’s got enough left to pull this out. Sor Rungvisai also fights this weekend and is waiting in the wings for the winner of this one.
$28 on Roman Gonzalez at +138
We’re also betting an undercard bout on Showtime’s Saturday night card, Jamontay Clark vs Terrell Gausha. Unlike Gonzalez-Estrada, we think this will likely be a dull affair. Gausha employs a somewhat negative style and tries to nullify your offense and get you to come to him and walk into shots. He makes it difficult to land anything big on him and he wants a slow-paced fight. Clark also likes to fight on his back foot and use some movement. This battle may come down to who makes the other fight counter to their preferred style. And we think Clark, with an 8″ reach advantage, will be the one benefitting from a distance fight. Gausha isn’t a big puncher or a volume puncher but we think he’ll have to figure out a path to victory through aggression. We haven’t seen him fight in that way before, but he can be awkward. He may be able to catch the southpaw Clark with the straight right. We think the best bet here is Clark in a dull, low-volume fight mostly waged with plenty of space separating the fighters.
$41 on Jamontay Clark at -144