We can live with our results a couple weeks ago, though we caught the benefit of fortunate scoring in the Pascal fight. We’re still outperforming our mutual funds but we’d like to get on a hot streak and increase our ROI a bit. As it stands our portfolio looks like this:
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 15.77%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 5.81%
Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI): 7.16%
The first fight we’re looking at this week is Saturday afternoon’s Matchroom main event on DAZN, Kenichi Ogawa vs Joe Cordina. This is a big step up for Cordina, his first title opportunity and likely the best opponent he can get to put him in position to earn a big payday. We’ve felt like he has coasted at times but this might just be because he hasn’t been significantly challenged. He will be on Saturday. He has a hand speed advantage and will likely draw Ogawa in and look to counter. We don’t think he’ll be able to hurt Ogawa so he’ll need to keep his hands busy and leave no doubt, especially if he’s on the back foot. Ogawa has the edge in power but we think he’ll fight at a measured pace and try to land a big right hand. If things aren’t going his way he may have to open up and let his hands go but we don’t expect that to be his fight plan. We think Ogawa is the better fighter here and nothing about the style matchup makes us question that. But it’s possible that Cordina will finally be in a real fight and he’ll rise to meet the challenge. This line opened with Ogawa as a -175 favorite, but he’s been bet to a +135 underdog. Cordina will have the edge with the judges but we’re going to trust our initial instincts and go with a three unit bet on Ogawa.
$39 on Kenichi Ogawa at +135
We’ll also be betting the huge lightweight contest from Australia on ESPN’s Saturday night card, George Kambosos vs Devin Haney. This is a fantastic matchup and we expect it to be a bit of a chess match. Kambosos, the self proclaimed “Emperor”, used all of his well earned clout to drive a hard bargain in negotiating this one. He was going to face Lomachenko, but when that fight fell through Haney stepped up to travel to Australia and sign on for a rematch in the event he wins which will also take place in Australia. Haney needs this fight and the Kambosos team knew it. In addition Haney will be without his father and trainer Bill and his other cornerman Ben Davison. Haney will have a hand speed advantage but it won’t be as great as it normally is. Kambosos is quick and has good timing. We aren’t exactly sure what this fight will look like. We’ve seen Kambosos come forward patiently against movers like Lee Selby and Mickey Bey and he might be able to do that here. But Haney has a little more length and will commit to the jab and we think there’s a chance he can control Kambosos and make him be more aggressive than he wants to be. We don’t think of Kambosos as a power puncher but he dropped Teofimo Lopez and shook him up. He’ll have the power edge and Haney was affected by the power of Jorge Linares. The judges will be in a charged pro-Kambosos atmosphere and Haney will have to win rounds convincingly. If the fight was being held in the U.S., we’d be confident in picking Haney. But the environment and all the intangibles in Kambosos’s favor make this pretty close to a coin flip fight. Haney opened at -262 but is now down to -174 which helps us make our decision to bet him.
$51 on Devin Haney at -174