Well, we’re coming off our worst bet a couple weeks ago when we picked Cassius Chaney to beat George Arias. We’d seen each fighter a couple times but neither had ever faced a fighter that could test our ideas about how good they are. We probably would have been wise to lay off that fight, but we also know we’ll probably bet a similar fight the same way in the future. Chaney felt power early in the fight for the first time in his career and it discouraged him for the remainder. We’re going to be wrong often, so we’ll just carry on and not worry about it too much. Our portfolio is now dangerously close to being outperformed by the mutual funds now:
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 26.58%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 24.41%
Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI): 9.49%
The first fight we’re betting this week is Friday’s main event on the DAZN card, Israil Madrimov vs Michel Soro. This is an important matchup in the division as both guys are top 10 junior middleweights. Madrimov only has 7 professional fights under his belt, but that’s a misleading statistic. He started in 10 round bouts and he stopped Vladimir Hernandez in his debut. Hernandez went on to defeat Julian Williams this year. Madrimov utilizes good footwork to cut off the ring and stay close and work. He can punch a little, but his stoppages mostly come from attrition. Soro has been treading water in terms of his level of competition since his competitive loss to Brian Castano. He’ll use the jab and has a slight size advantage over Madrimov, but he’s also comfortable fighting on the inside. We think both fighters are more effective on the front foot and that will be an important tactical battle to watch. It’s possible that both guys will be content to lay on the inside and work and we could wind up with a real trench war. Madrimov has the better feet and will get angles by stepping around, Soro has the better defense and guard. Madrimov is a fairly solid favorite here and that’s probably correct, especially with the fight taking place in Uzbekistan. But we think the line is just a bit wide and we’re putting a unit on Soro.
$13 on Michel Soro at +283
We’re also betting an undercard fight on Matchroom’s Saturday card, Zelfa Barrett vs Bruno Tarimo. Barrett runs hot and cold but his close decision win (disputed by some) over Kiko Martinez might be more acceptable in light of Kiko’s destruction of Kid Galahad. Barrett fought him on the back foot and while he was able to avoid getting caught by the big right hand, he struggled some with the pressure even though Martinez isn’t a volume puncher. However, Barrett has proven his mettle by earning a come from behind stoppage against Eric Donovan in a good scrap. Tarimo will come forward and put Barrett under pressure. He’s not a big puncher but he let’s his hands go and keeps walking through shots. Barrett is comfortable on the back foot and has shown he can punch, but we’re not sure he’ll move his hands enough to convince the judges that he’s winning rounds while moving backwards. And we don’t think he has enough power to short circuit Tarimo. It’s a well matched fight with a tight line. If it was taking place in Australia we’d feel more comfortable with our bet. But it’s not. Still, we’re picking Tarimo to take a narrow decision by outthrowing Barrett.
$27 on Bruno Tarimo at +128
We’re betting another undercard fight on the DAZN show on Saturday, Carlos Gongora vs Lerrone Richards. This is another well matched fight and a difficult one to handicap. Gongora arrived in 2020 with a big stoppage of prospect Ali Akhmedov. He’s a lanky southpaw who can be a bit awkward. He’ll trade with you and throws everything straight. He’s also coming off a stoppage win over another southpaw, Christopher Pearson. He’ll need to come forward and stalk Richards in this fight and that’s how he naturally likes to fight. But Richards has a big hand speed advantage and has good feet. He can’t crack an egg but he’ll be looking to outmaneuver Gongora to a points win while fighting almost entirely on the back foot. The interesting thing about this matchup is we haven’t seen Richards in against a southpaw in his pro career. And Gongora is probably not the first one you’d want to face as a professional, he might be tough to solve. The line is fairly tight and Richards will benefit from home cooking with the judges, but we think Gongora will pressure him enough to get the nod.
$54 on Carlos Gongora at -166
Next we’ll look at an undercard fight on PBC’s Saturday night show, Richardson Hitchins vs Malik Hawkins. This is a good opportunity for both guys, the winner should be able to land a shot against a contender. Hitchins had a long and successful amateur career. He’s well schooled with pretty good hand speed, he’ll try to control the fight with his jab. He doesn’t possess fight ending power and doesn’t like to spend much time inside. Hawkins is long but wants to pressure you and outwork you on the inside. He was beaten down by Subriel Matias his last time out, but this will be a much different kind of fight. We expect it will more closely resemble his abbreviated fight against Darwin Price, who was beating him with movement and the jab before he blew his knee out and had to be pulled out. If Hawkins is able to stay on top of Hitchins he should command the fight and it’s his best path to victory. But we don’t think he’ll be able to stay close enough to him to outwork him. We’re going with Hitchins.
$67 on Richardson Hitchins at -258