We hit 3 out of 4 last week to get back in the black. Dickens-Walsh got postponed, so that bet comes off the board. We’ll look at it again when it gets rescheduled.
For the moment we are outperforming our mutual funds:
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 59.91%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 4.86%
There’s not a whole lot on the docket this week but there is one fight we like a lot: Ivan Baranchyk vs Jose Zepeda. The only blemish on each guy’s record came last year against one of the elite fighters in the division, Baranchyk lost a clear decision to Josh Taylor and Zepeda lost a close decision to Jose Ramirez (we’ll overlook Zepeda’s injury retirement against Flanagan.) This one figures to be a matchup where Baranchyk is trying to work his way inside and do damage while Zepeda tries to keep the fight at distance using his feet and jab to control the action. Baranchyk is the betting favorite here at -160 while Zepeda is a +130 underdog. If you do the math the book figures Baranchyk to have about a 59% probability of winning. We disagree. In our minds Zepeda has about a 65% chance of winning, so we know who we’re backing but how much should we bet? We don’t know, but we’re going with five units as the most we’ll stake on an underdog for now (and hopefully one of these days we’ll figure out what the correct answer is.)
$50 on Jose Zepeda at +130
The line for Alen Babic vs Niall Kennedy opened way too close but quickly corrected. We’re sure Babic wipes him out but we don’t see a lot of value in betting a -625 favorite. And the over/under is set at 2.5 rounds and betting either side of that line seems equivalent to plunking down a stack of chips on black at the roulette wheel. We only want to bet when we have deluded ourselves into believing we have an advantage, so we’ll pass on this fight.