We lost our last two bets in very different ways. But even in hindsight we still don’t think they were bad bets. We scored Estrada-Gonzalez for Chocolatito as did many others. It wasn’t a robbery but it could easily have gone the other way and Gonzalez proved that he isn’t done. Clark-Gausha looked exactly like we thought it would look for five minutes until Gausha switched Clark off with a well-timed counter right hand. It was a big win for Gausha and just his third stoppage victory in the last six years. So even though we’ve logged some big losses in recent weeks, we haven’t completely lost confidence in our instincts. But our portfolio is a little leaner than it has been of late:
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 68.02%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 33.61%
Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI): 17.68%
This week we’re betting an undercard fight on Saturday’s DAZN card from Gibraltar, James Metcalf vs Ted Cheeseman. This is a solid domestic level scrap and a bit of a crossroads matchup. Metcalf’s career has moved at a glacial pace. He’s been a pro for 10 years now but he’s never had a significant step-up fight even though he is unbeaten. At 32 years of age, he has to win this fight for the British belt to be able to move on to some bigger paydays at the European and world level. He’s comfortable in the ring and has decent feet but we also don’t think he’s ever been put under real pressure. He generally likes to keep things outside but he may be forced to stand his ground at times here and we’ll find out if he has enough pop to keep someone at bay. Cheeseman got a much-needed victory his last time out against the one-dimensional Sam Eggington in an entertaining fight. We’ve seen Cheeseman fight as a pressure fighter, but after being painted from range and dominated by Sergio Garcia, he seemed to refashion himself as a distance fighter against Scott Fitzgerald. We’re not sure which Ted Cheeseman we’ll see in this fight, but we at least know that he feels like he has a Plan B should he need it. But we think Metcalf is a better operator and will be able to keep the pace and range of the fight where he wants it. We’re going with Metcalf in a close fight.
$52 on James Metcalf at -179
We’re also betting on the main event rematch on Saturday’s DAZN card, Alexander Povetkin vs Dillian Whyte. Our track record for both rematches, and also fights where one of the fighter’s health is compromised in some way, is not good so far. We’ve got a rare situation here where the loser of the first fight, Povetkin, is a fairly heavy underdog in the rematch. He was dropped twice in the first fight before ending things with a beautiful, violent uppercut. But Povetkin is 40 years old. And he was reportedly hospitalized twice while battling Covid-19 over the last few months. The last time we had questions about a fighter’s health (Matvey Korobov), we bet him to win anyway. And he was injured mid-fight and had to be pulled out. We probably should have learned from that. But the line movement here has practically made this bet for us. We can bet Whyte at -364 to beat a man who short-circuited him the last time he was in a boxing ring. He will enter the ring knowing that he’s been stopped and beaten twice in his life with uppercuts. If Povetkin will be questioning his stamina, Whyte may be questioning his chin. It’s not often that you have an opportunity to get +271 odds on a guy in a rematch of a fight he won seven months ago. There’s no thinking to be done here. We’re taking Povetkin since we can be paid well on a low-risk small bet.
$13 on Alexander Povetkin at +271