During the five week hiatus in the boxing schedule, the stock market has exploded. Our mutual fund investment has achieved a rate of return of approximately 10% over the last seven years. Since we started tracking it in September of last year, it has performed five times better than that. While we missed a big bet our last time out and have not had much of a chance to bet on boxing for weeks, our boxing investment is still outperforming the torrid stock market. Needless to say, we are bullish on boxing.
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 95.22%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 56.09%
Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI): 24.70%
The first fight we’ll look at this week is on the DAZN undercard and could end up being the best action fight of the weekend, Ronny Rios vs Oscar Negrete. Golden Boy had a rough 2020 and only promoted 6 shows, down from 32 in 2019. But this matchup continues in Golden Boy’s established tradition of matching fighters in tough bouts with stablemates, which Golden Boy does more often than most big promotions. Negrete is just one fight removed from a hard-fought and competitive trilogy against Golden Boy’s Joshua Franco. Though he came away with a loss and two draws, all three fights were closely contested. Negrete lacks fight ending power, but he can soak up punches and will keep his hands moving for the duration. He likes to work inside and can get a bit wide with his shots at times, but the sheer volume is enough to discourage most of his foes. Rios had a solid stoppage over Golden Boy stablemate Diego De La Hoya in 2019 and is a natural 122 pounder who carries decent pop at the weight. He’ll also work at a fast pace and should be a bit straighter and shorter with his shots. Negrete will be moving up in weight for this fight and will have a hard time denting Rios. We think we’ll see a terrific action fight that will likely go the distance, with Rios getting the nod based on landing the more damaging blows.
$65 on Ronny Rios at -216
We’re also betting on the main event on the DAZN show, JoJo Diaz vs Shavkat Rakhimov. This is another great matchup of two guys who like to fight inside. Rakhimov likes to jab his way in and step around you and work. He carries decent power and will work with uppercuts in close. Diaz will have the better hook inside, but it will be interesting to see how he works against the southpaw. He dominated Tevin Farmer by cutting off the ring and making him work in tight quarters, but he’ll find that Rakhimov will be content to meet him there. Diaz is a good operator and picks his shots well on the inside but we think Rakhimov will have his moments and has enough power to land a fight-altering shot. Diaz is the betting favorite here but we think this is close to a pick ’em fight, so we’re picking Rakhimov for the better payoff.
$26 on Shavkat Rakhimov at +172
We’re also betting an undercard fight on Top Rank’s ESPN card on Saturday, Adam Lopez vs Jason Sanchez. This is an intriguing matchup of two fighters who share two common recent opponents. Sanchez outpointed Jean Carlos Rivera in 2018, Lopez got off the deck to stop Rivera in a terrific 2019 battle. Sanchez went on to lose a decision to Oscar Valdez in 2019. Lopez dropped Valdez before being stopped in a fight that was up for grabs. Sanchez is a scrapper who will fight on the inside or from distance but doesn’t possess much power. Lopez can crack a little but is more than willing to mix it up even though he might be able to control things from distance. We think Lopez has enough in his arsenal to execute a plan B if he isn’t able to hurt Sanchez and get him out. But this fight is no cakewalk.
$52 on Adam Lopez at -205