It’s been a while since we made the bet, but Kazuto Ioka was masterful in his victory over Kosei Tanaka. And Ryan Garcia weathered the storm against Luke Campbell and stopped him with a massive left hook to the body. Here’s how we’re looking to date:
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 270.56%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 91.25%
Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI): 30.75%
First up this week is Wednesday’s ShoBox main event, Mykquan Williams vs Yeis Solano. Williams enters as a fairly heavy favorite. He’s undefeated but we feel like he’s already starting to hit his ceiling. He likes to come forward and control things but he isn’t a pressure fighter and had a bit of trouble dealing with the movement and southpaw style of Tre’Sean Wiggins last time out. Solano is no stylist, but he fought on the back foot and looked to counter last time out. He’s also a southpaw. He has a little more pop than Wiggins and could pose additional problems for Williams. But we wouldn’t be surprised to see more fighting on the inside here. We do feel like Williams should be the favorite here, but we also feel like the line is much too wide. We’re going with a small bet on Solano here.
$13 on Yeis Solano at +326
Next, we’ll look at an undercard fight from Saturday’s Showtime card, Raeese Aleem vs Vic Pasillas. We like Aleem. He’s got good hand speed and keeps his hands busy. He’ll move forward and put pressure on Pasillas and try to outland him. Aleem will beat a lot of fighters and he’s got a lot of potential. But Pasillas looks like he’s at the top of his form right now. He’s languished at the lower levels of boxing for years and had promotional issues. But he’s probably only lost one round in his career. And his victory over Ranfis Encarnacion last year is one of the most dominant performances in recent memory. There aren’t a lot of holes in Pasillas’ game. He’s got good feet, good hand speed, he counters well and he has a good inside game. Aleem opened as the favorite here and the public quickly bet him into the underdog role. We still think the line is great value for Pasillas. Aleem has a future, and he’s a better fighter than Encarnacion. But he won’t get past Pasillas.
$54 on Vic Pasillas at -147
We’re also betting Saturday’s main event, Stephen Fulton vs Angelo Leo. This is a great style matchup. We underestimated Leo last time out and thought he’d have a difficult time finding Williams and breaking him down. He didn’t. He pressed the fight and dominated the back half of the fight with a good body attack. He’s got a good motor and he proved to be better at cutting off the ring than we thought he was. He’ll need those skills again as Fulton likes to counter and fights well on the back foot. This fight will come down to whether or not Fulton can keep distance and potshot Leo with clean counter shots as he follows him. It’s a fight plan that depends on conditioning and works best in a big ring. Six months ago we’d have bet big on Fulton in this fight, but we think we were underrating Leo’s abilities. We still think Fulton wins here, but it’s a close enough fight that we’re reducing the size of our bet.
$41 on Stephen Fulton at -168
We’re also placing an early bet on an undercard fight on next month’s Matchroom show, Leigh Wood vs Reece Mould. We’re puzzled by this line. We don’t see this as a close fight. We’ve got Wood rated two levels above Mould, so we’re either way off in our evaluation or Mould may be benefitting from a local fanbase that is betting him into a decent position. Wood is no phenom, but he’s fought a much higher level of competition and is a decent operator in there. He has a bit of pop and gives you different looks. Mould will come forward and try to trap Wood and work the body. Maybe he’s up to this challenge, but we’re placing a big bet on Leigh Wood.
$81 on Leigh Wood at -197