We split our bets two weeks ago and sat out last week. We thought Daniel Dubois would win but didn’t like the line enough to bet on it. Joe Joyce fought impressively and closed Dubois’ eye, so we dodged a bullet there. Here’s how our portfolio currently stands:
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 185.16%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 54.03%
Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI): 29.01%
This week we’re betting a fight that was on the docket earlier this year, Wednesday’s Golden Contract featherweight tournament final, Ryan Walsh vs Jazza Dickens. This is the same writeup we used last time. Walsh has looked strong in the tournament, stopping Hairon Socarras and dropping Tyrone McCullagh twice. He’ll be the naturally bigger man in this fight and he’ll probably be the man coming forward. But Dickens has been in with top-level competition with his only losses coming against highly regarded Guillermo Rigondeaux and Kid Galahad, and technically sound Thomas Patrick Ward. He adapts well in the ring and will figure out early whether his advantage is coming forward or fighting on the back foot. He can fight well on the inside if he needs to and just seems to know how to best use his tools. We think he finds a way to win this fight and the tournament.
$37 on Jazza Dickens at -110
We’re also betting the Light Heavyweight final of the Golden Contract tournament on Wednesday, Serge Michel vs Ricards Bolotniks. Bolotniks has been on a good run over the last few years, particularly in this tournament. He’s active and will press the action. He’s been hurt early in his career but of late he has seemed sturdy. He’ll need to be as Michel has shown power through the first two rounds of the tournament. This one is being fought on neutral territory so we don’t think there’s a real A-side factor as far as scoring is concerned. We may see a war here, which would suit us fine. But we think Bolotniks extends his current hot streak.
$25 on Ricards Bolotniks at +109
Next we’ll look at a fight on Thursday’s Ring City show on NBC, Brandon Adams vs Sanny Duversonne. This was originally scheduled as Adams vs Serhii Bohachuk, but Bohachuk came down this week with an illness and had to pull out of the fight. Adams was preparing for a volume punching fighter who wants to stand in range and grind you down. He would have been the toughest test of Bohachuk’s career to date. Instead, in Duversonne he’ll face a very long 154 pounder who will have a 10 inch reach advantage. Duversonne was an unknown quantity when he stepped in against Chordale Booker just one month ago and earned a win or at least a draw, only to be robbed. Booker was rusty as he’d had a long injury layoff and his conditioning failed him down the stretch. It’s possible that Adams could suffer a similar fate as he’s only had one fight in the last two years. Duversonne, on the other hand, is fighting for the third time in two months, all against quality opposition. This is a trap fight for Adams. He’s fighting at his home gym, but he’s fighting at 154 for the first time since 2015. We’d say that it’s his most natural weight, but we can’t really be sure a fighter in his 30’s after a long layoff can be effective after a weight cut. We now know that Ring City prefers a very small ring that should work in Adams favor as Duversonne will have a harder time exploiting his reach advantage. But the odds on Duversonne are long here and we think he’s definitely live and probably in the exact prime of his short three year career.
$12 on Sanny Duversonne at +436
We’re betting an undercard bout on Saturday’s PPV, Josesito Lopez vs Franciso Santana. Lopez is 36, so there’s a chance he could get old overnight. But if he doesn’t, he shouldn’t have any trouble here. He’s been sharp in his last few fights, he was competitive with Keith Thurman and dominated John Molina Jr and will be in just his seventh fight in the last six years. He’s aggressive and still carries some power at 147. Santana has faced good competition and will hang around with a good chin, but he doesn’t have the skill of Lopez. We’re surprised to see this line so close, this is good value on Lopez.
$78 on Josesito Lopez at -310
We’re going to let our initial $50 bet on Erroll Spence ride as the odds have widened from -333 to -469.