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Investing With Boxing Picks, Week 61: Betting Under The Radar

Bud Crawford-Shawn Porter is the much anticipated fight of the weekend, but we're looking to less heralded fights for betting value.

Elvis Rodriguez took care of business a couple weeks ago to extend a modest three week run of profitable betting weekends.  Our portfolio now looks like this:


Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20):  34.53%

Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20):    29.68%

Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI):   12.00%


The first fight we’ll look at is Saturday’s Sky main event, Dan Azeez vs Hosea Burton.  Azeez comes into the fight undefeated and on a decent run of late against a slight upgrade in opponents.  We’ve seen him mostly fight from distance with some hand speed.  He’s not a long or tall light heavyweight though and we haven’t seen him fight often on the inside.  Burton has fought a little higher level of competition.  But he’s also found his ceiling with a stoppage loss to Frank Buglioni and a wide decision loss in the Golden Contract tournament to Ricard Bolotniks. Burton also likes to keep things at distance and he’ll have a 6″ height advantage and at least 3″ in reach.  But will it matter?  If we felt like Azeez would come forward and force Burton to work or clinch on the inside we’d have a lot more confidence in his ability to be effective in this matchup.  He has shown the ability to deal with a lanky jabber against Lawrence Osueke but Burton brings a little more offense to the table.  We’re expecting a close fight in a relatively low volume battle.  And in matchups like this we usually take the line that gives the best value.  We’re going with Burton.


$28 on Hosea Burton at +114


We’re also betting an undercard fight on Saturday’s big Top Rank PPV, Isaac Dogboe vs Christopher Diaz.  Both fighters have tasted defeat from the hands of Emanuel Navarrete.  Dogboe has settled in at featherweight in his last couple fights utilizing the same style he used at 122.  He comes right at you and wants to work in close.  He doesn’t have big power, especially at the higher weight.  But he is well conditioned and makes you figure out a way to deal with his high work rate.  It will be interesting to see how Diaz deals with the pressure.  We think he’s the bigger puncher in this matchup and we’ve seen him sit back at distance and look to line up the right hand.  Dogboe isn’t hard to find and his chin could be the deciding factor in this fight.  Diaz may win some rounds but we’re not expecting him to try to move and outbox Dogboe.  We expect him to try to damage him and get him out of there.  But we’re banking on Dogboe’s pressure to carry him to a decision victory in a good fight with some extended exchanges.


$42 on Isaac Dogboe at -162

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