We split our bets last week but made a small profit to hopefully start a hot streak. Our portfolio now looks like this:
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 32.81%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 30.25%
Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI): 11.22%
It’s a big fight week but a little slow for good betting opportunities. But we found one fight we like on Saturday’s Canelo PPV undercard, Elvis Rodriguez vs Juan Pablo Romero. Rodriguez has been in Top Rank‘s stable for most of his career and notched five wins in The Bubble on ESPN during the pandemic. But then he ran into Kenneth Sims Jr. and was neutralized by a good jab in a distance fight and Top Rank abruptly cut him loose. Sims is a fairly capable fighter and he may have provided the stylistic blueprint for fighting against Rodriguez. But we don’t feel like Romero would be comfortable in that kind of a fight. He’ll likely come to Rodriguez and try to do damage on the inside with hooks. We’ve never seen the chin of Rodriguez tested, so he may be susceptible in a firefight. However, he’ll have an advantage in hand speed and he’s got pop in both hands. Romero has never been beaten, but we think his style will play into Rodriguez’s hands. As long as Elvis doesn’t have trouble mentally getting past his first loss, he shouldn’t have much trouble here. Had this fight happened before the Sims fight, we’d figure Rodriguez would come in as a -500 favorite or better. But following the loss and Top Rank’s decision to cut him, he’s only a -229 favorite. And we like that line a lot. There’s a chance it could get better during the week, but we think it’s more likely to widen as the public starts betting because Rodriguez has the bigger name. We’re going with a six unit bet at these odds.
$83 on Elvis Rodriguez at -229