When the Paul brothers experiment first began, we’ll admit that we were highly skeptical that we’d get any kind of real combat entertainment. And honestly, we really didn’t in the first few shows. We don’t care at all about exhibitions, so the Logan Paul-Floyd Mayweather fight did nothing for us (but we watched it anyway.) And Ben Askren had nothing for Jake Paul, but we watched that one too. We’ve watched all of both brothers’ fights. Ordinarily we don’t pay much attention to anything Jake Paul has to say, but now that he has targeted the most easily baited man in America, Dana White, this has become great fun. Tyron Woodley is a solid step up for Jake Paul. This will likely be a real fight. And watching Jake Paul ramp up the level of competition from here on out will be entertaining because he does seem to truly want to find out what his level is. He’s looking to finish guys, and he’s running his mouth the whole way. This seems guaranteed to be fun until it ends with Paul being knocked out, and then it will be even more fun. We’re not embarrassed to admit we’re buying this card.
Last week Julio Ceja turned in another exciting performance only to see it end with him unconscious on the mat. That seemed to us to be the sort of stoppage that can possibly end a career. We wish him a healthy recovery and thank him for providing such a high level of entertainment over his last several fights. Our mutual funds account is still going strong and while our picks have still yielded a better return, the margin is narrowing. We need to win some bets:
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 45.05%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 31.16%
Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI): 15.54%
We’ll start with an undercard fight on Sunday’s PPV card, Ivan Baranchyk vs Montana Love. Baranchyk returns to action 10 months after being brutally stopped in 2020’s Fight of the Year. He’s been in with a much higher level of competition than Love, but when you only look at the fighters he’s beaten there isn’t a great deal of difference. Baranchyk will march forward and test your will with power shots all night long. Love will likely try to keep distance with the jab and move around and look for spots to pot shot and counter. He’ll have the quicker hands and shouldn’t have a hard time finding Baranchyk, but this fight will hinge on his ability to stay out of trouble. The reach is about the same and while Love has better feet, we think this fight will be held in a relatively small ring so that the main event will be action packed. And we think that’s an advantage for Baranchyk. His shots will carry more power and will look more powerful to the judges. It’s not a bad matchup and Love isn’t a murderous puncher, so this is a decent fight to ease Baranchyk back into things after a scary knockout last time out. We think he gets it done.
$57 on Ivan Baranchyk at -213
And of course we’re betting the main event, Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley. We don’t know what will happen here. How could we? The only thing we can really glean from Paul’s first three fights is that he has some power. Does he have power in a boxing sense or does he just have the kind of power that will win a guy a lot of fights in a Kwik Shop parking lot? That’s really the question. We like the UFC and watch it sometimes though we don’t follow it nearly as close as boxing, so we know who Tyron Woodley is. Is he shot? Probably. Is he still a phenomenal athlete? Yes. Is he the best opponent Paul has ever faced in a boxing ring? Certainly. Does he have more experience going deep into a fight knowing that he can count on his conditioning? Yes. Has Paul ever been forced to press through serious fatigue and finish a fight? Not in a live boxing match. Should we bet this fight? No. Will we anyway? Yes! And we should haven gotten in earlier because we’re going with Paul and the line has moved against us the last couple weeks.
$57 on Jake Paul at -207