Dillian Whyte may have retired Alexander Povetkin with an emphatic stoppage victory in their rematch. And Ted Cheeseman looked great in handing JJ Metcalf his first loss. We’ve now extended our losses to our last four picks and given back all of our winnings since November. But this is a good time to remind ourselves that we are not only still playing with house money, we’re also still ahead of our mutual funds investment:
Boxing Betting Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 49.90%
Mutual Funds Annualized Rate of Return (since 9/17/20): 36.30%
Boxing Betting Return On Investment (ROI): 13.43%
This week we’ll look to get back on track with Saturday’s main event from Dubai, Jamel Herring vs Carl Frampton. This is a tough one to call and the odds opened with Herring as the underdog, but he’s been bet into the favorite a day before the fight. Herring is the much taller man here and will have about a six inch reach advantage, but Frampton has said this week that Herring’s southpaw stance will be a bigger problem than the reach. Frampton hasn’t faced a southpaw since Steve Molitor more than eight years ago. Herring has found his identity as an out fighter using the jab and his feet to control the pace of his fights. He’s not flashy but he seems more confident now in what he wants to do in the ring. Frampton has battered the bodies of his last two opponents, dropping them both with left hooks. Despite his deficiencies in length, Frampton has a lot of boxing ability. He has good footwork and normally jabs his way in and gets work done on the inside. Herring’s southpaw stance may take away Frampton’s jab and it will be interesting to see if Frampton deploys more of a pressure fighting style for this fight. He may have to. We’ve waffled on this one, but we’re going with Frampton in a close fight. We like the underdog odds and we expect him to get treated slightly better by the judges in Dubai.
$25 on Carl Frampton at +101
We’re also placing an early bet on the May 1 DAZN main event, Joseph Parker vs Dereck Chisora. Parker’s stock seems low in the eyes of many. He’s often looked a bit lethargic in the ring and his latest effort against Junior Fa didn’t do much to change that image. He won’t blow you away with volume and he doesn’t possess lethal power in either hand. But his feet are serviceable enough that his defense isn’t bad. Chisora, though, will bring the fight straight to him as he always does. There is not a more elite gatekeeper in the sport. If you are a world level heavyweight, you beat Dereck Chisora. And if you’re not, he beats you. Even at the age of 37 this is still true. We think Chisora will have moments in the early going and this fight will be even at the midway point. And then we think Parker’s youth and fresher legs will carry him to victory. But he really has to show up this time. He’s in with a guy who will make you pay for not being fully switched on.
$50 on Joseph Parker at -160